Recent rains don’t alleviate drought

The recent rains may have helped a bit, but the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is still expecting to go into drought stage “Alarm” in the near future.

Austin and the Hill Country began 2019 on a positive note by exceeding historical rain averages and continuing the trend into spring. Barton Springs flow showed consistent high discharge rates throughout the season. By June 14, water levels in the Lovelady monitor well had risen to surpass the 3rd highest peak since 2003 (536.0 ft-msl or 117.4 ft-dtw).

However, summer 2019 brought a drying trend of below-average rainfall. This initiated a rapid decline in both water levels and spring flow in early July. This pattern has continued through the fall and winter. Official forecasts point toward even drier conditions to come across Central Texas in 2020.

For the district to declare drought conditions, either spring flow at Barton Springs or the Lovelady water levels need to be below their respective drought thresholds. In the Barton Springs hydrograph, the flow is declining toward the Alarm Stage drought threshold of 38 cfs. The Lovelady hydrograph shows declining water levels that are expected to reach the drought threshold of 478.4 ft-msl.

“We’ve had a bit of rain and some nice cool weather, so that decreasing has slowed a little bit so maybe we can ride that out another month to avoid making that drought declaration,” Brian Hunt, senior hydrogeologist with BESACD, said. “Although really welcome, the rain gets the ground conditions nice and wet, so we could get some runoff with a big rain. But when it is dry out the soil drinks it up… We have had a little recharge, but nothing that has changed the trajectory, so we would need a big change in the weather pattern to reverse the trend we are in right now.”