With growth comes development hurdles
This is the third in a fourpart series of articles based on the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau headcount. The numbers were released last month. The last part of the series looks at the changing demographics in Hays County.
If Wimberley and Woodcreek want soaring growth like the rest of the city’s in Hays County, they will have to change state law.
The law is clear and restricts how the two cities can approach annexation, the key to future population gains as both cities are largely built out.
Even without the legal roadblock, future booming development will likely be subject to hurdles now on the horizon, observers say. Those include availability of power, water and affordable housing and control of traffic. However, most of the growth in the area will likely occur outside of the city limits, because everything about annexation changed in 2019.
The Texas Municipal League’s general counsel wrote an update on the issue in 2019. Scott Houston, who was also TML executive director at the time, put it bluntly:
“On May 24, 2019, municipal annexation as it existed for over a century was over. On that date, House Bill 347 became effective. The bill requires landowner or voter approval of most annexations by any city in Texas. … Prior to H.B. 347, state leaders realized that annexation was a means of ensuring that residents and businesses outside a city’s corporate limits who benefit from access to the city’s facilities and services share the tax burden associated with constructing and maintaining those facilities and services. The current legislature lost sight of the reasons behind annexation. In the process, it may deal a punishing blow to Texas. In a state that adds 1,400 people each day to its population, H.B. 347 will curtail the ability of cities to manage that incredible growth. That being said, and in spite of the legislature’s confusing, continued efforts to harm the state’s economic engines, city officials in Texas are resilient and will find innovative ways to keep the Texas miracle alive.”
Regardless, the city of Woodcreek wasn’t planning to annex property anyway. The Comprehensive Plan for 2030 states:
“There are no current plans for future development at this time. In order for the city of Woodcreek to gain more residential housing developments, annexation would be necessary.”
Wimberley Mayor Pro Tem Rebecca Minnick explained how things stand for her city’s future, saying, “The fact that Wimberley provides no utility services at all pretty much means a no-go for voluntary annexations. Plus, since we have no ad valorem tax means there would be few – if any – situations where the city would want to annex property, because we then would have to provide the one thing that we can provide, and that is road maintenance and repair.”
Elected officials in Woodcreek seem to agree among themselves that rapid growth within the city limits is simply unlikely.
“We are indeed reaching capacity as to buildable lots,” said Mayor Pro Tem Aurora LeBrun. “I anticipate that we will continue to grow but at a slower pace.”
Councilmember Jeff Rasco said, “We’d love to see some neighboring communities request annexation and allow Woodcreek to grow in that way. We need to be able to provide services and facilities that are attractive to our neighbors.” However, city officials are now working on a new long-range plan based on the 2030 comprehensive document already on the books. Residents recently received and returned surveys seeking input about the future.
LeBrun and City Manager Brenton Lewis said once the survey results are consolidated the city will put together a new plan for 2040. But, Rasco said he fears the survey results will be skewed by the methodology chosen to conduct the poll.
Unhampered by legal restraints, officials in a position to know and in other parts of Hays County see significant growth in the future. Census data show that Wimberley’s population grew by 8 percent between 2010 and 2020. Woodcreek grew by 21 percent. That does not include areas in the Wimberley Valley outside of the city limits. San Marcos saw a growth rate of 51 percent, Kyle grew by 63 percent and Dripping Springs and Buda had rates well above 100 percent. What growth Wimberley and Woodcreek have experienced has come in the form of in-fill. That’s the construction of a few or individual homes within existing neighborhoods.
Texas State Demographer Lloyd Potter issued a statement shortly after U.S. Census Bureau results were released on the required 2020 national headcount suggesting that the counties between and including Austin and San Antonio will constitute a new urban area like Dallas-Fort Worth.
“I do see that as the next Metroplex,” Potter said in an interview. “(The area) is beginning to realize its potential.”
Jason Giulietti, president of the Greater San Marcos Partnership, said, “We have a defined strategy, and all our communities are partnering on a five-year plan. We will use it. We are going to see even more companies find this region. We’re going to elevate the kinds of companies and tech that will creep deeper south (from Austin). We’ll see them move this way because that’s where the workforce is. But, we’ve got to stay affordable.”
Affordability is just one of the major factors that will affect long-term population growth, according to Potter.
Land for development is available, especially outside the Interstate 35 corridor, said Dr. Joe Kotarba, professor of sociology at Texas State University and a resident of Woodcreek.
“Look at a map, and you see a lot of land in Hays County that is not developed,” he said. He noted that Texas 130, a toll road that bypasses Buda, Kyle, San Marcos and New Braunfels to connect I-35 north of Austin with San Antonio, could also begin to be a magnet for development growth.
As for Woodcreek, “We don’t have many buildable lots,” Rasco said. “And many, like our family, will be held back out of ‘self-defense.’ We didn’t move to Woodcreek to be in an overdeveloped suburb; that’s what we moved away from. The ETJ (land outside of but adjacent to the city limits) is a big concern. It could be very attractive to developers who’d like to subdivide.”
In Woodcreek, he said, “housing prices continue to rise for existing and new properties. If we’re going to live within the present boundaries, will prices continue to rise? How long will that be sustainable?”
Sustainability is a key overarching concern for some Hays County officials and observers.
Just based on the amount of water available to support population spurts like the one seen between 2010 and 2020, that kind of growth is not sustainable, said Dr. Patrick Cox, a Wimberley resident and executive director of the Trinity Edwards Springs Protection Association.
“The vast majority of people in Hays County are relying on groundwater and wells,” he said. Going forward, “We will need both a voluntary cap and more stringent conservation across the board throughout the county.”
Noting that groundwater is the lifeblood of all communities in the Texas Hill Country, Cox said cultural changes will be required to satisfy the needs of tomorrow’s Hays County residents.
TESPA is modeling future water demand scenarios, he said, to figure out what the level of sustainability actually may be.
The Texas Water Development Board’s 2021 water plan for this region anticipates the amount of groundwater available through 2070 will remain at roughly 1.3 million acre feet of water. At the same time demand will grow to that level as well.
Along with availability of water, demographer Potter said he’s also concerned about power for the future of Hays County and Comal County.
The major drought of 2011 and the freeze of spring 2021 will be repeated, he predicted, and both of those events put major strains on the electrical grid.
“Do we have more capacity now than before the drought and the freeze?” he asked.
Pedernales Electric Cooperative just finished an upgrade of the transmission line running into Wimberley, but if electrical capacity is an issue in the future, it is not addressed head-on in PEC’s most recent master plan. However, there have been discussions for decades about the power cooperative potentially bringing an additional transmission line into Wimberley from Dripping Springs.
Besides availability of power, water and affordable housing, Hays County urban areas also face what’s obvious for anyone who must drive feeder roads and Interstate 35, one of the most congested and accident-prone highways in the country.
Potter said the Texas Department of Transportation has committees established to find ways to ease today’s logjam and future traffic on I-35 and in Hays County.
“They are trying to do some things to improve congestion,” he said. “If there’s going to be significant development in Comal and Hays counties, there will be challenges for people trying to go to work.”
The Texas Transportation Commission has established the Texas Clean Lanes and Congestion Task Force. So far, no dollar allocations have been made to directly affect traffic passing through Hays County, according to the TCLCTF website.
Potter, along with Lon Shell, who represents Precinct 3 on the Hays County Commissioners Court, are not pessimists about continued growth, even at high volumes.
“I’m optimistic that by working with others in our region we can improve the opportunities for sustainability as growth continues,” Shell said. “County authority is limited; however, we must do all we can to create opportunities for conservation, especially related to groundwater supply and quality issues.”